Gunners’ Next Superstar? Breaking Down Arsenal’s Top Winger Targets for 2025/26

With Andrea Berta leading Arsenal’s recruitment, identifying and assessing a winger with creativity, ball progression, and lethal goal threat is of paramount importance. Evaluating Álex Baena, Nico Williams, Bradley Barcola, and Francisco Trincão, as potential transfer targets through key metrics will determine the best fit.

1. Goal Contributions & Attacking Output

Bradley Barcola dazzles with 18 goals and 12 assists in 41 games, averaging an xG of 16.36 (overperforming his xG) thus displaying stellar end-product. He is in an elite category, residing in the 99^th percentile (top 1%in Europe) for both NPGs (non-penalty goals) and xG+xA (expected goals and expected assists). However, playing in the French league which, with all due respect is not the most competitive with PSG being favourites every year might diminish his impact in this regard.

Francisco Trincão follows with 9 goals and 13 assists in 42 games this season, averaging an xG of 8.42 thus proving to be a reliable creative outlet. Compared to Barcola or Baena, Trincão falls in the 88^th percentile (top 12% in Europe) for xG+xA whereas Baena is in the 92^ndpercentile (top 8%) and Barcola lies in the 99th percentile (top 1%). Thus a gulf is evident when it comes to attacking output, especially with the Portuguese international playing the most minutes out of all four mentioned wingers (2333 Minutes, with Baena next at 2181; Barcola and Williams both played less than 1900 minutes). However he ranks in the 80^th percentile (top 20%) for overall attacking actions, while Baena and Barcola fall in the 61^st and 74^th percentile respectively, showing he does take initiative in attacking areas, which for Barcola for instance is lesser as he plays alongside Kvaratskhelia and Dembele and thus gets more equally divided.

Nico Williams has been linked to Arsenal for a long time and is an interesting prospect, contributing 7 goals, 7 assists in 35 games, averaging an xG of 5.04 across all competitions this season, balancing dribbling and creative play. At the time of writing this article, he is in the 74^th percentile for xG+xA (top 26% in Europe) and has been convincingly overshadowed by Baena and especially Barcola in this regard.  This season he has not been at his prolific best yet, but there’s no denying the flair he possesses, and he thrives under pressure as evident from his performance in the UEFA European Football Championship competition in 2024, thus perhaps psychologically ready to thrive in the pressure of the premier league, amidst the constant glare of the media.

Álex Baena perhaps is the most uninspiring name in this article for Arsenal fans, however, make no mistake, he is perhaps the most versatile name in the list. He lies in the 92^nd percentile (top 8%) for xG+xA, which is strongly due to his excellent creativity rather than goalscoring as evident by his NPG, where he falls to the 70^th percentile (top 30%). At the time of writing this article, he is averaging an xG of 5.62 and has contributed to Villarreal’s season with 6 goals and 7 assists, excelling in playmaking over scoring.

2. Creativity & Key Passing

Baena is the best creator in this list, especially with the last two seasons’ performances earning him a lot of praise. Currently, Villarreal are 5^th at the time of writing and if it were not for Baena, they would perhaps, not be competing for European spots. This season he ranks in the 93^rdpercentile amidst wingers in Europe for assists (top 7%), averaging an xA of 10.09 (previous season xA- 10.92), while staying in the 96^thpercentile for key passes (top4% in Europe). He has offered 80 key passes till now in the season with 107 key passes in the previous season. Creativity wise he is definitely an upgrade on both Martinelli (xA- 6.10) and Trossard (xA- 4.80) and being highly versatile could even slot in as a no.10 beside Ødegaard or help Ødegaard to have some rest at times.

Barcola gives tough competion to Baena in terms of creativity but playing in a less competitive league does give Barcola a slight advantage. However he still had to earn his numbers which rank him in the 94^th percentile for assists (top 6% in Europe), averaging an xA of 7.24 (overperforming his xA as his current number of assists is 12). He is in the 95^th percentile for key passes (top 5% in Europe) thus rivalling Baena in final-third influence. He has offered 60 key passes till now in the season with 49 key passes in the previous season.  The only reason, Baena perhaps eclipses Barcola in this section is due to his versatility and the fact that he could take a lot of burden from Ødegaard’s shoulders, be it in terms of creativity or rest. Also, Baena has performed for a Villarreal side that plays in a tougher competition and Baena plays in a less star-studded sided than PSG, making his job harder than Barcola.

Nico Williams is next, and he falls in the 86^th percentile for both key passes and assists (top 14%), averaging an xA of 4.65. This shows he has been underperforming this season since he averaged an xA of 7.49, providing 16 assists in 37 games for Athletic Bilbao across all competitions in the previous season.  For sure he balances progressive play with creativity but numbers wise Baena and Barcola have overshadowed him this season.

Trincão is the last winger to be discussed in this section. He belongs in the 96^th percentile for assists this season, averaging an xA of 5.98(overperforming his xA, with 13 assists currently) and lies in the 78^th percentile for key passes. He is effective but a tad less dominant, especially while providing incursive passes. However he predominantly plays as a right winger and Arsenal already have Bukayo Saka and Ethan Nwaneri for that position, so it’s unlikely that Arsenal would move for him.

3. Progressive Play & Dribbling Ability

When it comes to progressing the play forward and dribbling, Nico Williams is one of the most lethal wingers out there and on his day could leave even the most dominant defenders in the dust. Dribbling is his natural strength. It’s no surprise that he lies in the 97^th percentile for dribbles (top 3%) and 98^th percentile (top 2%) for progressive carries per 90 minutes, excelling in 1vs 1 duels, as Bilbao depend quite a lot on him during attacking transitions.

Barcola is the second name to be considered in this area as with Nuno Mendes staying deeper, it often falls to the French international to drop deeper and carry the ball forward. This is exemplified in the statistics as he ranks in the 95^th percentile for progressive carries, highlighting he offers elite ball progression. However his dribbling isn’t that effective, with him ranking only in the 55^th percentile amidst wingers for dribbles completed.

Baena falls in the 66^th percentile (top 34%) for progressive carries and 54^th percentile for dribbles, thus highlighting he is more of a passing final-third creator than a dribbler who unlocks defences with his dribbling.

Trincão ranks in a better percentile than Baena when it comes to dribbling (77^th percentile, top 23%) but falls behind when it comes to progressive carries (58^th percentile).

4. Suitability & Financial Considerations

Nico Williams has a release clause of €58m and earns €200,385 weekly at Athletic Bilbao. With his contract expiring on June 30, 2027, he was heavily linked to FC Barcelona in the summer transfer window last year, with FC Barcelona quite publicly pursuing his signature. Williams however in the end, opted out of a move, ultimately deciding to stay in the Basque club. Amidst speculations of a future transfer move Williams has recently confirmed that he was happy with his choice in an interview with L’Equipe. Arsenal remain long time admirers and with Barcelona potentially shifting their attention towards Luis Diaz, an opportunity might present itself for the Gunners to sign Williams. Athletic Bilbao will demand the release clause to be paid in full and the player’s camp will demand high wages, significantly high enough to see him become Arsenal’s best-paid player, something which Arsenal might hesitate to offer to a new signing over the likes of Saka, Saliba, Rice & Ødegaard.

Barcola is the most productive attacker in this list with a growing profile. He has no release clause and earns €126, 923 weekly, with his contract expiring on June 30, 2028. The lack of a release clause means negotiations could be challenging, with PSG having the bargaining power. With the player currently valued at about €63m and having three years left in his contract in June 2025, PSG potentially might ask for something north of €80m. However, with the addition of Kvaratskhelia in the PSG squad, there have been rumours of Barcola admitting his astonishment at PSG’s decision of signing the Georgian international as PSG already had Doue and Barcola himself, competing for the left winger spot. Since then Barcola has been in red-hot form, seemingly combining well with Kvaratskhelia, but the question of a potential future exit remains, and Arsenal may try and test PSG’s resolve with a tempting offer.

Baena remains an underrated option in the market for many top clubs across Europe. He has a release clause of €60m and earns €38,462 weekly at Villarreal. A final-third creator rather than a direct ball progressor, he is a very cost-effective option as he is unlikely to demand hefty wages as Nico Williams and perhaps will be content with a €150,000-€175, 000 salary per week. Eminent journalist Fabrizio Romano had confirmed Al-Ahli’s interest in Baena and their willingness to trigger the release clause, however Baena himself along with Villarreal confirmed that he was going to stay in Spain for the time being. His contract at Villarreal expires on June 30, 2028, and Villarreal will also expect the release clause to be paid in full. Aston Villa had expressed interest; with Unai Emery being an admirer and some reports did suggest that Arsenal have been keeping an eye on Baena’s developments.  One to watch out for in the summer.

Trincão earns €75,000 weekly at Sporting CP and has a release clause of €80m in his contract which expires on June 30, 2026. He played for a year in the premier league at Wolverhampton Wanderers, where he was on loan from FC Barcelona, but it was not successful on his part by any means. Both Manchester heavyweights have shown interest but with right-wing being his predominant position, its unlikely Arsenal will try to sign him, with world-class talents at their disposal already in that specific position.

Personal Verdict- Judging by the fact that Arsenal will most likely buy a centre forward, the focus perhaps shifts on finding a creative winger, someone who is a creator and can provide more key passes in the final-third, rather than an outright goalscoring winger. However a counter argument might suggest itself, that with Ødegaard and Saka in the team, there is perhaps enough creativity and a winger who is more adept at finding the back of the net should be signed, with all due respect to the goalscoring prowess of the incoming centre forward. With all these arguments in mind, Barcola and Baena should be the top two targets for the left-wing position.

Baena is the more balanced option as he provides more key passes and assists, and his wages won’t be an issue. He is durable and has a fair release clause. His overall statistics and financial profile align with Arsenal’s demands.

Barcola is the flashier option as he blends his elite goal contributions, creativity, and ball progression admirably well, while being quite young at 22. His statistics in the xG + xA and key passes metrics are exceptional, making him a valuable addition to Mikel Arteta’s system. The lack of a release clause does complicate negotiations, with PSG being hard negotiators but his wages (€126,923/week) are far more reasonable than Williams’ demands.

Thus while Barcola is the best fit tactically, Baena might just be more suitable when it comes to the financial considerations and just edge him out.

Who would you take? The Dazzling Barcola? The Creator Baena? Or the Lethal Nico Williams? Let us know in the comments.

[The data used in analysis have been collected on 10^th March 2025 and assimilated from Datamb, Capology, Sofascore & Transfermarkt.]